Nationally, the average retail price of regular-grade gasoline fell 9.32 cents per gallon (CPG) in the past two weeks. Price cutting from July 12 forward puts the total decline at 18.02 cents, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets.
Also favorable for motorists, the price discount to one year ago is now nearly 53 CPG.
Premium grade’s average pump price dropped nearly as much in the two weeks, down 9.14 cents to $4.1774.
Retail diesel prices in the Lundberg metro-area survey show a decline of 6.86 CPG to $3.8013.
Important revisions to official jobs data paint a poorer employment picture. The work commute being the kingpin among factors defining U.S. gasoline demand, the data points to further weakening of gasoline demand.
Lower crude oil prices during the two weeks were a down factor for gasoline, but also U.S. gasoline market changes played in: Refining operations returned to normal at three Midwest refineries, allowing big downward corrections; for example Chicago’s 31-CPG pump price decline (due just slightly to the Environmental Protection Agency’s relenting with a temporary stop to low RVP specs as ExxonMobil’s Joliet, Illinois, refinery was taken offline and prices zoomed up) and Cleveland’s drop of 23 cents.
By the middle of next month, at retail, the nation will have transitioned to higher allowable vapor pressure per anti-smog regulations, a down factor for gasoline cost and price.
Seasonally, gasoline demand is already heading down and from here, there’s just a week left in the high summer demand period, defined by the Department of Energy as the six-months of April-September, and by most everyone else as the three-month period of June-August. Lundberg, however, has ever since 2017 determined with hard data that “summer driving” is the four months during May-August (for example, in 2023, May’s gasoline demand eclipsed demand in both June and July).
If wars and battles in oil regions of the Middle East and Russia do not notably worsen and if no extreme disruptions to U.S. refining occur, then short term the average retail gasoline price may continue to decline, maybe a nickel or more in coming days.
The world oil market is also laden with demand pessimism, especially concerning China’s oil demand. Overall concerns that a world economic recession may be imminent are spreading. In coming months, global and U.S. trends in supply security and in economic performance will help define the price of oil and therefore prices of all product derivatives.
For now, the U.S. downstream is navigating rapid change as always—refiners with a painful cut to gasoline margin and retailers with a nice expansion.
Retail margin nationally was padded with 7.01 cents more per gallon, to 42.21 cents. Chicago’s regular-grade margin gained 3.45 cents more, to 59.94 cents, up from July 13’s skinny (for Chicago) 43.94 cents. In Baltimore, margin skinnied by 2.71 cents to a bare 20.41 CPG, a loss of 8.36 CPG since July 12.
Click here for previous Lundberg Survey reports in CSP Daily News.
Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.
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