- The International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA) predicts the total retail foodservice segment will grow 1.1% compared to 0.9% last year in terms of operator purchases in dollars.
- C-stores are expected to grow 1.3% this year, with projected growth of 1.5% in 2025.
- IFMA slashed its inflation projection for 2024 from its February prediction of 5% to 3.8%.
At IFMA’s recent virtual Marketing & Sales Conference, attendees could join a session on the association’s latest 2024 and 2025 Food Away-From-Home (FAFH) Industry and Segment Projections.
IFMA began this year projecting that the entire FAFH industry would grow 0.9%, on a real basis. That calculation balances the industry’s on-site segments (like colleges & universities and healthcare foodservice with their built-in clientele) that look to remain traditionally steady, with the more volatile restaurant segment.
The recent slowing of consumer store traffic is creating challenges for restaurants, who obviously rely completely on consumer behavior. And it seems clear that those consumers, especially lower income ones, are looking to limit their foodservice spending choices.
This consumer caution works in favor of convenience stores, where projected real basis growth is projected to be 1.3% in 2024, building on the 0.8% growth the segment saw in 2023.
The number of c-store units shrank during the pandemic, but newer stores that are opening are often larger and have expanded prepared food offerings (which are a very high margin item for c-stores—much higher than gasoline or cigarettes). Some brands have developed a highly differentiated food and beverage menu and have a devout following that draws in customers and can in some cases make their stores dining destinations.
The segment has invested in loyalty programs and mobile apps which has allowed it to offer advancements like curbside pick-up and delivery which consumers are increasingly expecting of all foodservice outlets. Consumers have been increasing their travel in 2024, which will help boost sales although continued remote and hybrid work schedules will limit sales (especially at breakfast). The segment will also benefit from expected lower gasoline prices and from some consumers who may look for ways to stretch their dollars on food away from home.
When it comes to these last few months of 2024, IFMA feels confident in its February industry predictions. Overall, FAFH should see 0.9% growth for the year.
In February, IFMA will update its forecast with a look at the remainder of 2025. IFMA is proud to partner with Datassential, a leading foodservice research firm, who worked with IFMA to create the projections, as well as FMA Foodservice Leadership Councils, who validated them.
IFMA members can access all projections, including data on the Retail Foodservice category, through the IFMA Scope® portal, which provides an interactive and immersive view of real-time segment and market demographic information to aid in business planning.
IFMA’s goal is to provide the most up-to-date, relevant insights and information for its membership and the community. The forecast presentation that was delivered at the 2024 IFMA Marketing & Sales Conference can be accessed through early November by conference attendees. For those who may have missed the conference, they can still access the platform and watch recordings of all three days’ worth of sessions. Check out the IFMA website for details at ifmaworld.com.
This post is sponsored by IFMA