Consumers are literally tightening their belts—and convenience stores subsequently might want to start considering modifying their foodservice offerings to get ahead of changing dietary trends.
Six percent of c-store customers are currently prescribed weight-loss drugs like Wegovy, said Donna Hood Crecca, principal at CSP sister research arm Technomic, Chicago, at CSP’s 2024 Outlook Leadership Conference in Rancho Palos Verdes, California, on Aug. 7.
“There's a lot of buzz right now about some injectable medications called GLP-1 like Wegovy,” Crecca said. GLP-1 drugs originally were used to treat diabetes. “They’re being presented as the silver bullet for weight loss.
“Now some of these brands are FDA approved for weight loss,” Crecca said, adding that the drug slows the emptying of the stomach “so the individual feels satisfied for a longer period of time and they also decrease the appetite.”
In fall 2023, Walmart reported a decline in food-basket size among its customers who were also purchasing GLP-1 meds, Crecca said. “That raises serious questions about whether and how this might impact food and beverage sales, and this is an important question for this channel.”
The 6% stat above is higher than the general population, which runs between 2% and 4% “depending upon whose modeling you’re looking at,” she said.
Users of these medications typically experience a 20% to 30% reduction in their caloric intake, which can translate to weight loss of 10% to 20% of their body weight, Crecca said.
Since these users started taking these medications, Technomic data shows:
- 45% each much less
- 34% each healthier
- 26% drink less alcohol
- 37% have reduced foodservice purchases
“Right now in 2024 the overall impact on food and beverage sales is fairly negligible, but as usage is expected to grow, we need to really be looking at this,” she said. “There are forecasts that say between 7% and 9% of the U.S. population adult population will be taking these medications in the next decade—and actually I think this is going to be higher among c-store patrons.”
This means the majority of users will shift away from indulgent offerings, Crecca said. “Some of our key categories are now at risk—sweet beverages and snacks, carb-forward foods, alcohol. An analysis by Morgan Stanley forecast that overall sales of items like cookies and chips and sodas will decline 4% to 5% by 2035 as a result of these medications entering the marketplace,” Crecca said.
‘More Exposed’
“We’re more exposed due to our higher reliance on these categories, these items, than other retailers are, so as new formats of these medications like tablets come to market as the FDA and the insurance carriers allow more broader usage of these medications for specifically managing weight usage, this is definitely going to increase, so we’ve got to monitor this trend definitely and get ahead of it,” she said.
Crecca said as use of these medications grows, this presents an opportunity to evolve c-store products and create smaller portion sizes to develop healthier versions of favorite snacks and foodservice items “because these are not the only consumers who are seeking ‘better for you.’ It’s part of a larger trend, and we also have an opportunity to adjust our product mix and menu mix to include more of those better-for-you options, more portion-size options, whether it be packaged or foodservice.”
Doing this, she continued, will help c-store retailers “prepare for what is coming.”
“We need to take some steps now to prepare for these consumption shifts,” Crecca said.
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