The national average retail price of regular grade gasoline is now $4.217 per gallon. It is up 15.9 cents from two weeks ago, up by $1.20 during the Iran war so far, and up by 88 cents per gallon from one year ago.
Oil prices continued to gyrate wildly during these two weeks, with the near-month futures price of West Texas Intermediate ending up $3.07 per barrel lower on Friday at the still dramatically high level of $96.57.
U.S. retail gasoline prices can be expected to rise from here even if oil prices do not. Wholesale gasoline price hikes have slammed retailers hard and fast, cutting their margin by 20 cents per gallon on average. The current U.S. average retail gasoline margin on regular grade of 22.9 cents is too low to be sustained. Retailers will be forced to hike street prices soon or close shop.
Even if oil prices remain at current levels, we may see retail gasoline prices rise by 10-15 cents soon, to the degree that retailers can "get well" after big erosion of their margins.
In some cases around the country, retail operations may be endangered because of government threats to hunt down possible price gougers, a damaging inhibition of true market realities that is as unconscionable as actual price gouging would be.
Retail margin volatility
During 2025, the full calendar year retail gasoline margin on regular grade was 34.06 cents per gallon, per Lundberg Survey. So far this year, it averages 31.44 cents. Costs of doing business continue to rise, and now inflation, fueled heavily by higher fuel costs, has again reared its head, hurting retailers and consumers alike. Consumer demand for fuels is being reduced via priced, making it problematic for retailers in gasoline margin distress to achieve relief.
Now the U.S. has announced its intent of a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's closure of the vital waterway is rationalized by its view that portions along Iran's coast are in national, not international, jurisdiction, meanwhile threatening movement elsewhere in the strait by the possible existence of mines.
Regardless of outcome for Hormuz anytime soon, Iran's attacks on energy facilities, including producing fields of several neighboring nations, has added months or years to a return to pre-war world petroleum supply.
Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.
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