"Prices crept up like 20 cents in a few months, but it's been a very quiet thing," Michael Lynch, president of energy consulting [image-nocss] firm Strategic Energy & Economic Research, told the newspaper.
Quiet, but still in the forefront. After all, the numbers are posted on huge signs at most every busy intersection and are widely available on the Internet, Troy Green, spokesperson for AAA, told the paper.
"If they posted the price of bread or milk in big numbers, you might get upset when they rose too," he added. Particularly because, like bread and milk, gasoline figures into most consumers' everyday lives, with no alternatives, Green said.
"And there's a visceral reaction when prices reach a milestone, like $3 a gallon and other round-number prices," he said. "A lot of it is psychological."
Still, for high-mileage drivers on a tight budget, gasoline price increases have a real impact, said the report. "The more people have to pay for gasoline, the less they're going to spend in other areas," Green said. That has an effect not only at the household level, but also for the U.S. economy, two-thirds of which depends on consumer spending, he said.
Prices are up 50 cents per gallon from a year ago, which translates into an extra $300 in annual gasoline costs if driving 15,000 miles in a vehicle that gets 25 miles per gallon, said the report.
And they are not likely to go down anytime soon, the Tribune said.
"We see prices continuing to increase through the spring and summer," EIA economist Neil Gamson told the paper. "We don't see prices under $3 for the next two years."
Though they are not likely to spike, either, not like 2008, when price jumps of 20 cents per month were common. The EIA sees only a 1-in-10 chance of gasoline returning to $4 a gallon this summer.
Lynch agreed. "I don't think we'll see $3.50 or $4 this year or next. And $5 is a little crazy."
Still, conditions are ripe for higher prices: Demand for crude oil, the main component for gasoline, is rising in large, quickly developing countries such as China, India and Brazil, Gamson said. In China, for example, oil consumption has risen to 8.2 million barrels per day in 2009 from 1.7 million in 1980, according to data from the EIA and the CIA.
Even the U.S. appetite for oil is returning as the economy picks up, Gamson said.
Weather was cited for price spikes earlier in the winter, as cold temperatures drove increased demand for home heating oil, another crude derivative, in the Northeast and Europe, he said.
Then there's the annual shutdowns of U.S. refineries for maintenance, which temporarily reduces supply and the switch from winter to summer gas formulations, which increase prices slightly because of additives to address emissions, Green said.
Americans simply drive more in the spring and summer, the report said. "People drive more when the weather is warmer and better," Green told the paper.
The Middle East, a major source of oil, is the wild card, according to the report. Political unrest in Egypt played havoc with crude prices recently because of its location as a transit hub for global oil supply, home to the Suez Canal and a major Mediterranean oil pipeline.
For a similar geopolitical reason, oil prices rose Wednesday after reports that Iran was moving warships through the canal en route to Syria.
Across the nation, gasoline prices varied widely Wednesday, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report. Pricier cities included Los Angeles, at $3.48; Hartford, Conn., $3.33; and Chicago, $3.32. Other prices: Allentown, Pa., $3.16; Orlando, Fla., $3.09; and Newport News, Va., $2.99.
For The Pantry CEO Terry Marks' recent remarks on gasoline prices, click here.
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