How Likely Is a Senate Shake-Up in 2016?

WASHINGTON -- Only a few seats separate the Democrats from regaining control of the Senate this election cycle, and the odds are in their favor. The Republicans will be defending more seats—24 to Democrats’ 10—and the divisive presidential race could further complicate their effort.

What follows are some key Senate races to watch on election night ...

Sen. Roy Blunt (R), above, who has held his seat since 2011, is running for re-election. “He’s a savvy politician, and he’s been very good to the c-store industry,” says Paige Anderson of NACS. Blunt has a track record of working across the aisle to do what is best for the state of Missouri, she says. As of press time, he held a narrow lead over his Democratic challenger, Jason Kander. “If Missouri changes hands and parties, then you will definitely see a change in the majority of the Senate,” says Anderson, who calls Blunt “No. 51.”

With Nevada Sen. Harry Reid (D) poised to retire in 2017, Republicans have a true opportunity to pick up a seat with their candidate, Rep. Joe Heck, an Iraq veteran and ER doctor. Polling shows Heck nearly tied with his Democratic challenger, Catherine Cortez Masto, above.

Anderson will be watching the New Hampshire and Ohio Senate races, with strong candidates from both parties competing for the seats. In New Hampshire, Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) was trailing her Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan, above, in most polls as of press time.

Another “friend of the industry,” Sen. Richard Burr (R), above, is fighting to serve a third term in a very tight race in North Carolina. Recent polling showed his Democratic challenger, Deborah Ross, ahead by at least a point, which was within the margin of error.

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman (R), above, has held a decent if not unsurmountable lead over his Democratic opponent, former Gov. Ted Strickland, for much of the election. In 2012, Portman backed an amendment that would have allowed state governments to sell fuel, food and convenience items at rest areas along the Interstate Highway System, which the c-store industry strongly opposed.

Another race that could tip the Senate is Pennsylvania incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) vs. Kate McGinty. As of press time, polls showed a tie for the seat, which Toomey, above, has held since 2011.